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Removing this book will also remove your associated ratings, reviews, and reading sessions. This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economics, Reviewed in the United States on July 28, 2016. If you can't get an idea or two out of this volume, then you probably couldn't crack a snail's shell with your heel. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 6, 2010. It's somewhat galling to see Brown/Darling on TV declaring "this time is different", and "we're in uncharted waters, we've not been here before", only to read just how many times we HAVE been here before. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. . please sign up If you are looking for an economic version of "Game of Thrones", you won't find it. . Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur. It provides an excellent explanation of the predictability of the cycle, briefly stated, deregulation allowing looser lending, ballooning lending and leveraging causing a bubble that eventually bursts, and the economic chaos caused afterwards as asset prices (e.g. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides." This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff know financial crises. The title may be a little misleading as it does not provide equal data of centuries old crises just because we don’t have enough information. It has impressive academic rigor, an appendices & reference list as long as the body, and charts galore. I was jazzed to find this at the library, but let. I only give five stars for a book I believe will be relevant or universal throughout time. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press. --Daniel Gross, Newsweek "Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. The result is innumerable new insights and newsworthy conclusions. However, they actually managed to really convince me that, the 2008 financial crisis really *was* different. . Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. This book’s an A- graduate paper glorified into 400+ pages. This book is the current darling of the financial set, and I understand it has become required reading by economists, bankers, policy-makers and the more thoughtful financial pundits alike. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing―and recovering―their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. This isn't the book I was looking for, and that isn't the authors' fault. In order to navigate out of this carousel please use your heading shortcut key to navigate to the next or previous heading. This time is no different is the point, being evidenced by the sovereign defaults starting in the emerging economies following the Global Financial Crisis. To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. Contrary to what the Fed continuously repeats, it is possible to predict financial cycles and this book proves it by examining how bubbles have burst since the invention of money. The analysis, narrative, and illustrations in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, were primarily organized around themes (serial default, inflation, etc. I'll mention three. Something went wrong. Not because this book is a classic, nor because it is too scholarly for me to apprehend. That’s a rare feat. Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. . Recommends it for: economists, statisticians, professional investors, Published September 1st 2009 by Princeton University Press. The reason is that I feel like it is too much like a draft. --Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945, "This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. The reason is that I feel like it is too much like a draft. ""This Time Is Different" is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. It might be unfair for me to rate this book (giving it 2 stars). To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. Please try again. This book investigates datasets connecting financial measures such as debt or real estate price changes to financial turmoil. The authors, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, have assembled an amazing history of government defaults, hyperinflations, banking crises, and currency crises for the past 800 years in dozens of countries spanning the globe. The authors write as academics, not entertainers. The central premise of the book is that people always go 'this time is different yadda yadda' about an economic boom but they are wrong and there are common features to all the financial crises over the last 8 centuries. Not that it's any excuse, but I doubt that many studies would stand up to such careful scrutiny. As almost everyone who reviews this book mentions, this is truly an impressive piece of work. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff." This was originally four stars. A valuable contribution to the learning process, Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 28, 2012. Guess what? This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. OMFG!! Unfortunately its written as blandly as Ben Stein speaks. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes—from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Was considering giving it 4 stars (or higher). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. xlv + 463 pp. Thats a rare feat. It is not a book of popular economics, and it does not have a straightforward story line. For the 2020 holiday season, returnable items shipped between October 1 and December 31 can be returned until January 31, 2021. Continue reading to learn more. Highly recommended read for those seeking more in depth knowledge after watching The Big Short. Carmen Rogoff is a leading expert on Third World financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"―claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. The book is full of graphs, boxes, tables, albeit with quite detailed descriptions and brief explanations. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. $35 (hardcover), ISBN: 978-0-691-14216-6. I hope there are other scholars and economists who are looking at finding a financial model that is homeostatic and not geared toward continuous growth. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This shopping feature will continue to load items when the Enter key is pressed. One of these items ships sooner than the other. The book is full of graphs, boxes, tables, albeit with quite detailed descriptions and brief. Its a huge work, and I guess academics could not previously have conducted this without the computational tools which are now available. After viewing product detail pages, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in. They didn't, understandably, compile a narrative of these hundreds of independent events, but coded them into a massive statistical database with which they could compare the relationship of all these financial panics with each other and with numerous other stats like GDP growth and total debt. In the preamble to their book, recommended by … Top subscription boxes – right to your door, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Thank you Mr. Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff for making this subject clearer, Reviewed in the United States on January 22, 2016. This is a dense, complex book. Initial impressions: well-explained book. ---Greg Ip, Washington Post 13882 March 2008 JEL No. Impeccable Historical Data and Historical Insights in 2009 Before the 2010 Tarnishing, Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2015. This book really opened my eyes to the foolishness of banks, businesses, investors and governments with respect to their borrowing. If you are looking for substance, this is very good starting (and ending) point. It has impressive academic rigor, an appendices & reference list as long as the body, and charts galore. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff." Big on data and ideas, missed at least one important angle. Huge volume with links to a huge volume of reference material. I gave this 2 stars, in spite of the fact that the authors played fast and lose with their data. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much―or how little―we have learned. Only time will tell whether the authors' fears are to be realized... Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. The title, as you might guess, refers to the fact that “this time is different” always turn out to be famous last words – over and over and over again. It is well written and easy enough to read for non-financial readers with the stats and data included in the appendix, allowing the story to be told without getting bogged down in technical detail. Highly recommended read for those seeking more in depth knowledge after watching The Big Short, Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 13, 2016. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. Ken Reinhart, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, is a top international macroeconomist. ), although detailed tables in the book chronicled country-specific information on the dating, frequency, incidence, etc. When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. What troubled me the most about what I discovered in this book is that fiat currency and "growth" are a given, namely, this is how the financial global system works and will continue to work. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes―from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. The book assembles a vast data set on financial crises, from many countries both developed and emerging, and reduces it to a mass of charts and graphs along with text. As M Pedersen suggests it's dry as a panda's breast milk too. Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 5, 2014. I wish they would’ve taken one example from the beginning until the crisis was resolved and explain step-by-step what occurred and what triggered the crisis and then mention if that phenomena occurred in other countries or regions. Wasn't it Einstein who said that the definition of stupidity is making the same mistake again and again? Despite the conclusions being discredited by a US student who found an error in the data analysis this book still provides an invaluable insight into the workings of the global economic cycle. It is a cogent analysis of hundreds of years of financials crises. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. E6,F3,N0 ABSTRACT This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England’s fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis. Find the steepest point in the uptrend and extrapolate to infinity. ---Bob Lenzner, Forbes.com "Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well." Reviewed for EH.NET by Richard Sylla, Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes―from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Paperback – 18 July 2011 by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) 4.0 out of 5 stars 300 ratings The level of historical analysis is quite high and the amount of detail is immense. We work hard to protect your security and privacy. There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. Unable to add item to List. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly belongs on the short list of economic books that key policymakers should carefully read—if for no other reason than to remind them that when they hear economists, analysts and even other policymakers utter the popular refrain “this time is different,” what should immediately come to mind is not smooth sailing ahead, but storm clouds building on the horizon. Our payment security system encrypts your information during transmission. It seemed they felt obliged to pause the narrative at every juncture to tell the reader the reasoning and details of their data sets and criteria. “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing–and recovering–their way through an extraordinary range of financial … Be that as it may, the book still provides generic findings about the financial cycle that are still valid. It was also daunting to find significant proof that government books are usually very opaque and consciously hide significant facts about their own economies, which further fuels bubbles and the inevitable bursts. --Barry Eichengreen, author of "The European Economy since 1945" "This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. That said, it is not an easy read. An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps. Princeton University Press; Reprint edition (August 7, 2011), Reviewed in the United States on December 7, 2018, At first I thought this book was excellent. Hope triumphs over experience. There was a problem loading your book clubs. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us … However, it should be noted that after publishing, a PhD student found that there was a spreadsheet error in this book that changes the author's conclusion and thus the entire point of the book. --Bob Lenzner, Forbes.com "[A] fine new history of financial debacles." Amazon Price New from Used from I was super-impressed by the fact that their conclusions were supported by data underlying the research. Read this book using Google Play Books app on your PC, android, iOS devices. Much of this would have been much better off in an appendix or three. Not because this book is a classic, nor because it is too scholarly for me to apprehend. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly: Reinhart, Carmen M., Rogoff, Kenneth S.: 8601404555053: Books - Amazon.ca The book analyzes all aspects from many different regions but more in modern times. See all formats and editions Hide other formats and editions. Their reputation was tarnished in 2010 when their paper “Growth in a Time of Debt” was found to be not replicable without following their 1. coding error (excluding Australia, Canada and others from the data) 2. unconventional weighting of countries 3. selective/ excluding use of data. . Therefore, most of the book discusses the recent phenomena of economic crises. 2009. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Download for offline reading, highlight, bookmark or take notes while you read This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. I was jazzed to find this at the library, but let down. The authors have written a monster of a refence book which spans 800 years of financial history. "This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts―as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. We don’t share your credit card details with third-party sellers, and we don’t sell your information to others. of specific crises episodes by country. housing) and other financial instruments are "reset", which is shouldered by the tax payer. Buy This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Illustrated by Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff (ISBN: 8601404555053) from Amazon's Book Store. Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in, $12.59 Shipping & Import Fees Deposit to France. So please view my rating with that in mind. This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper No. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Seventh Edition, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, Irrational Exuberance: Revised and Expanded Third Edition, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World: 10th Anniversary Edition, "Easily the most useful, and arguably the best, is this splendid piece of research and analysis on, as the subtitle says, 800 years' worth of booms and busts.". It is a cogent analysis of hundreds of years of financials crises. (unfortunately GIGO) Questioning their methodology then became generalized (their use of growth regression methodology) which grand scheme “solved” what to this reader looks like a chicken-egg analysis problem. The book is trying to show that economic crises have commonalities regardless of the region but this gets unfocused as the book jumps from region to region and country to country. Please try your request again later. Please try again. Please try again. Put in another way, I feel like it is a preliminary analysis, where you throw out all raw materials you have, graphs, summaries, descriptives, and only with a very rough idea of what you are going to say. The thesis of this book is important, but I cannot say it is worth actually "reading" very closely -- The gist can be extracted in a short time -- and the charts/data scanned. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow." The dry academic style was difficult to keep plowing through. has become so influential that when somebody says, 'We live in a Reinhart-Rogoff world,' everybody else in the room nods sagely. This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economic and economic history should read. Unfortunately it’s written as blandly as Ben Stein speaks. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents. You can see the list of figures and tables by chapter with the corresponding data. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models." Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff together wrote This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, and Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. Wall Street Journal - Justin Lahart This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Kindle Edition by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) Format: Kindle Edition 4.0 out of 5 stars 311 ratings --Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits, "You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. It will help to have some academic knowledge of statistical methods to make sense of much of the analysis, although you can easily bypass the analysis and read the conclusions. Contrary. --Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide, "I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work." My rating is subjective. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Kindle Edition by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) Format: Kindle Edition. This is a book that looks backwards, sideways and forwards all at the same time, examining financial crises of the past, drawing comparisons with the current crisis, and outlining some ways those of the future may be spotted on the horizon and at least alleviated. --Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010), "The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. It is, however, a book of extraordinary significance to our times, and of more immediate importance, I'd venture, than Professor Hawking's opus. 4.0 out of 5 stars 302 ratings. Lucid, thorough, essential reading for policy makers, Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 20, 2013. Another reviewer pointed out that some of the analysis in the book is based on faulty data. This one belongs on everyones shelf." The authors brilliantly combine different economic schools of thought and apply it to real life economic crises. The Second Great Contraction ," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany. A comprehensive look at international financial crises that puts more recent economic meltdowns into perspective. We're rich forever! In the same way we now have software to decode DNA, we can apply similar computational tricks to financial data. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. This book is the current darling of the financial set, and I understand it has become required reading by economists, bankers, policy-makers and the more thoughtful financial pundits alike. --Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, "This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. As almost everyone who reviews this book mentions, this is truly an impressive piece of work. Be that as it may, the book still provides generic findings about the financial cycle that are still valid. It warns particularly of the all-too-frequent tendency of developing countries to assume that times of plenty will never end and therefore to spend profligately, a tendency also seen in certain developed countries. The book assembles a vast data set on financial crises, from many. I was about to say unratable. This book looks at 5 aspects of financial crisis, external and internal debt, inflation, banking crisis and currency collapse, and reveals some interesting insights into as to why they matter, and to what extent they matter. Each time, the experts have chimed," this time is different"--claiming I was about to say unratable. This books an A- graduate paper glorified into 400+ pages. This one belongs on everyone's shelf." Another reviewer pointed out that some of the analysis in the book is based on faulty data. This, I suspect, is one of those books, like Stephen Hawking's A Brief History Of Time, which far fewer people read than own. 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